News from British and Canadian Conservatives

Saturday, May 03, 2008

YouGov win battle of the pollsters

Despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth by Labour, YouGov's opinion polling techinques have turned out to be pretty accurate today. They were the most accurate predictors of the local elections in England and Wales. However, the stakes were higher in the London elections, where Ken Livingston regularly criticised the firm, denying that the large Conservative leads which they projected were true.

The final YouGov poll predicted that Boris would lead Ken on the first preference votes by 44%-36%, which is pretty close to the actual 43%-37% split. On second preferences, YouGov were even better, correctly predicting that the final tally would be 53%-47% in Boris' favour.

Throughout the campaign, YouGov were seen to be out on a limb, with rival pollsters mruk and Ipsos-Mori forecasting a narrow Ken victory. In terms of the general election, YouGov has also been showing the largest Conservative lead over Labour, and tends to show the Lib Dems lower than other pollsters.

The most recent YouGov poll, for the Telegraph, gave the Conservatives an 18 point lead over Labour. The headline figures were Conservative 44%, Labour 26%, Lib Dem 17%.

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