News from British and Canadian Conservatives

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Poll boost for Conservatives

Today's Times reports the biggest ever Conservative lead in a Populus opinion poll.

The headline figures give the Conservatives an 8% lead, with the Conservatives on 38%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 18%.

With Gordon Brown as Labour leader, the Conservative lead extends to 13% (Conservatives 42%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 17%)

The lack of public support for Gordon Brown has been making Labour activists and back benchers in marginal seats jittery, with increasing talk of David Miliband as an alternative leader, but he fares even worse with the electorate. The Conservative lead extends to 20% (Conservatives 48%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 16%).

According to electoral calculus, all of these outcomes would lead to a majority Conservative government led by David Cameron. The predicted results are as follows:

Blair Brown Miliband
Conservative 335 397 474
Labour 254 208 140
Lib Dem 28 14 6
Other 29 27 26
Tory Majority 20 144 298

On the Miliband figures, Fife North East would fall to Conservative, decapitating the Lib Dem Leader Ming Campbell (unless his colleagues get there first). Of course, the results are only an opinion poll and should be taken with a large pinch of salt, especially the Miliband figures, as many people won't know who he is. The predicted seats also assume uniform swing, which is unrealistic. However, it all bodes rather well for the local elections in May!

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